New model shows moderate resource use & reduced economic inequality keys to sustainability

COLLEGE PARK, MD - A new analytical tool adds human factors to a widely-used biological model of how animal populations interact, suggesting that human societies can reach a steady state that is sustainable when they do not over-deplete natural resources and avoid extreme economic inequality.
The paper, titled "Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies," was published in the May 2014 issue of the journal Ecological Economics. Its authors are Safa Motesharrei, a Ph.D. candidate in applied mathematics at UMD; Jorge Rivas of the Institute of Global Environment and Society; and Eugenia Kalnay, Distinguished University Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science and the Institute for Physical Science and Technology at UMD.
Kalnay, an internationally recognized weather and climate scientist, worked in leadership positions at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for two decades and currently serves on the UN Secretary General's Scientific Advisory Board on Sustainability. She is renowned, in part, for leading the National Weather Service's advances in weather modeling in the 1990s. Her recent work has focused on advancing understanding of climate change and environmental sustainability through improved modeling of the coupled interaction of earth and human systems.
HANDY's starting point is a well-known model in biology and population ecology, commonly known as the "predator-prey model," which is used to understand the dynamics of animal populations. The researchers applied that model's concepts to human societies, and incorporated two new variables that are not included in existing models: accumulation of wealth and economic stratification between rich and poor. These changes are necessary, the researchers say, to reflect that some segments of human society use more resources than others, and accumulated wealth can delay, but not prevent, the decline that occurs when a population exceeds the carrying capacity of its environment. With HANDY, the researchers say, they have developed a practical method for using the relevant natural, social and economic conditions to estimate a human society's carrying capacity.
While some HANDY scenarios are suggestive of past civilizations that flourished and then collapsed, such as the ancient Romans and Mayans, the model was not created to explain specific societies' collapse, team members said.
The model is "not intended to describe actual individual cases" – such as modern Western society – "but rather to provide a general framework that allows carrying out 'thought experiments' for the phenomenon of collapse and to test changes that would avoid it," the authors wrote in the research paper.
"The model does not say that society's collapse is imminent," said Rivas, "nor does it predict a collapse for 'Western' or 'industrial' civilization despite some pre-publication reports to the contrary."
"HANDY is not a forecasting model," Motesharrei said. "It cannot be used to predict the future of any society. It can, however, help us understand the possible underlying mechanisms in the evolution of a society."
This minimal modeling approach focuses on the long-term behavioral properties of dynamical systems, the authors explain. The goal is not to find precise solutions for the variables of the real system, but instead to address questions such as:

• In the long run, will the system settle at a steady state?
• What are these possible steady states?
• What factors determine which long-term behavior is followed?

"The results of our model are optimistic, because they show that by making certain decisions, we can bring about a sustainable future," said Rivas. Unlike physical and natural systems, such as the solar system or an ecosystem, "we can, as humans, make critical choices that can change the long-term path that our social system will take, and we can optimize such choices using scientific models. This is a key takeaway lesson of this paper."
However, the model shows that "if we continue to over-deplete nature, and if inequality continues such that the rich consume far more than the poor, the system eventually collapses," Kalnay said.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-04/uom-nms040214.php

The Art of Posing Models

There are so many modeling resources now a days. You have TV shows like America's Next Top Model, movies, magazines and even websites like talenttrove guiding everyone to become a model. But, one of the most notable themes I see in all of these resources is the photographer. The photographer sets up all of the shoots and scenes and the themes of each photo. Sure, these models have been professionally trained and without a doubt add to the effect of each photo, but it's the photographer that guides each models pose.
To capture the perfect picture the photographer has to be a jack-of-all-trades. He is directing, managing and even acting as a psychologist. The way each model interacts in a picture is the direct result of the photographers. Here are 3 examples of how models at different ages are prompted by the photographer to pose.
Posing Babies:
Posing babies is probably the most difficult task for a photographer. Babies are almost entirely out of control. Their moods are unstable and they require a lot of attention. The baby's environment is the key to a good pose. Having a playpen, highchair and the baby's parents nearby are necessities to keep the baby happy. Staging lots of toys will assure a happy expression from the baby model.
Posing Children:
As a baby grows into a child, he obviously becomes easier to control. Considering that most children live in a "fantasy world" it is fairly easy to get them to pose and act out the desired scene. Most children and children models enjoy having their pictures taken and it becomes almost natural for them to adapt to their setting while their photo is being snapped. Creating games and interacting with the child during and between photos should allow for some great poses.
Posing Adults:
Adults generally care a great deal about their appearance and will pose with effort causing them to lose the natural acting ability that children possess. The photographer usually has to place the adult models into the poses and coach them throughout the photo shoot. At times, photographers take blank pictures allowing the model to loosen up. By the time the photographer is ready for the real pictures the model has warmed up to the camera.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/2934914

Independent 3D Model Confirms Size and Productive Capacity of Lithium Americas' Cauchari-Olaroz Resource

3D model results used to support the development of a Reserve Estimate and to evaluate & identify optimal production well field design and pumping strategy - Results support 50% fewer production wells - Independent audit of the Resource Estimate confirms no significant changes to previously reported Resource Estimate - Model predicts a mine life of greater than 40 years 

TORONTO, ONTARIO, Feb 27, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- Lithium Americas Corp. /quotes/zigman/50931 CA:LAC -4.92% (otcqx:LHMAF) ("Lithium Americas" or the "Company"), announces the completion of a 3D brine numerical model (the "Model") used to simulate brine extraction from its Cauchari-Olaroz lithium/potash project. The Model enables prediction of brine flow within the salar (i.e. salt lake), mine life, lithium grade depletion over time and reserves. The modeling is supported by geological, hydrogeological and geochemical data collected through field programs at the site.

"A 3D brine numerical model is the ultimate tool to fine tune the mine plan in a brine development resource. The Model has also supported many of the critical assumptions in our Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA") including the size, quality and estimated productive life of the Cauchari-Olaroz resource estimate - one of the largest lithium brine resource in the world. We are very pleased that the Model also indicates that due to the exceptional geological characteristics of our salar, we are expected to require approximately 50% of the production wells originally estimated in the PEA to put phase 1 of the project into production", said Dr. Waldo A. Perez, President and CEO of Lithium Americas. "We continue to add value to our project and to demonstrate the technical capability of our team. We expect to deliver the definitive Feasibility Study with reserves and a mine plan in Q2 2012".

Results of the Model will be displayed at the Company's booth (# 2523), at the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada Convention (PDAC) in Toronto, Ontario and at the Corporate Presentation Forum for investors on Tuesday March 6th at 10:40am in room 801b.

The 3D Brine Numerical Model

The Model was developed in FEFLOW hydrogeology modeling software by AquaResource Inc., a division of Matrix Solutions Inc., (a Canadian company that provides expertise in numerical modeling and data management of groundwater and surface water systems) with the involvement of Dr. Mark King, Independent Qualified Person for Lithium Americas. The Model incorporates additional data collected since the previous Resource Estimate filed on December 6, 2010, including geology, hydraulic testing and brine results from five pumping well arrays and four sets of salt lake boundary tests as well as a water balance analysis, completed in 2011.

The upcoming Reserve Estimate will be derived from simulation of a conceptual production well system that is designed to meet engineering, hydrogeological and property constraints which control the recoverable portion of the Resource, the Reserve. The Model predicts that the grade of the pumped brine will remain above 600 milligrams per litre lithium for a period of at least 50 years.

The Model also shows that an annual production rate of 40,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate can be achieved over a period of 40 years without extracting brine from outside of the property boundary. The predicted duration for which the Company can maintain a production rate of 40,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year within the Model exceeds 50 years.

Near Term Milestones

The near term milestones of the Company include:

        
        --  Completion of the certification and qualification process for the
            Company's battery grade lithium carbonate with multiple customers
        --  Re-assembling the Pilot Plant, built by SGS Minerals Services in Canada,
            at the Company's project in order to start continuous production at
            pilot scale at the project site
        --  Completing the definitive Feasibility Study and starting Detailed
            Engineering
        --  Completing financing and off-take agreements with strategic parties
        
 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/independent-3d-model-confirms-size-and-productive-capacity-of-lithium-americas-cauchari-olaroz-resource-2012-02-27?reflink=MW_news_stmp

About the Company

Lithium Americas is developing one of the world's largest and lowest cost lithium operations. The Company has defined the world's third largest lithium brine resource, and a completed Preliminary Economic Assessment identified that Lithium Americas' operating cost per tonne of lithium carbonate is expected to be one of the lowest in the industry. The Company is currently working on completing a definitive Feasibility Study, expected to be delivered in the second quarter of 2012. Mitsubishi Corporation and Magna International are shareholders in the Company, in addition to both companies having off-take arrangements with Lithium Americas.

Mark King, Ph.D. (P.Geo.), independent QP of the Company has reviewed and approved this press release.

Daron Abbey, M.Sc. (P.Geo.), senior hydrogeologist with AquaResource, a division of Matrix Solutions Inc., has reviewed and approved this press release.

This press release contains forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use of statements that include words such as "could", "potential", "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "intend", "plan", "likely", "will" or other similar words or phrases. The Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligations, to update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Readers should review the Company's annual information form dated May 30, 2011 for a list of risks associated with the Company, and its business.

 

Planning A Competency Modeling Project

If you and your organization have decided to develop job competency models or a competency-based human resource system, your plan should include answering three key questions that will affect the outcome of the project.
1. What resources do you have to build your models?
There are many ways to do competency models. Some are complex, time-consuming and expensive. Others are not. The trade offs have to do with validation and thoroughness, although the less complex approaches can include a validation step.
If you are doing more than one model, you should consider using an integrated approach that utilizes a common set of building block competencies, customizable for each job. Each model requires five to ten days of an internal or external consultant's time, including facilitation of a focus group of high performers, interviews and model development.
Pick an external consultant to get you started who is willing to transfer their methodology to you and train your staff to carry on the work, and/or have them be trained to build competency models from the start. http://www.workitect.com/building-competency-models.php
For a large retail organization, a consulting firm did the first two models while certifying an internal HR manager to do additional models. The HR manager also designed and implemented selection and performance review applications based on the models. Structured interview questions were developed for each key position to help hiring managers assess and select candidates with the required competencies. Performance goals and results forms were also developed.
2. Where should you start in the organization?
The best way to demonstrate the payoffs of a competency approach is to start with a high impact job or one that is requiring attention, i.e. high turnover, impact on company's sales, etc. Define the measurable outcomes of doing the model and specify applications.
For example, if you want to do a model of a software developer position, include an application of a selection system and interview guide that will allow you to expand the candidate pool and select superior performing software developers. Other applications can be added, but you should start with at least one visible and measurable outcome for the model. If outcomes and applications are not built in, competency modeling may be perceived as a HR exercise without payoffs.
There is a natural tendency to want to start with a low risk, low visibility position, sometimes in order to evaluate the process and the consultant. You are better off doing your homework and thoroughly checking references before selecting a consultant than to waste an opportunity to make an impact that can multiply through out the organization.
The ideal place to start is with a director or executive level position. Getting that group to develop a model for their position assures total buy-in. They have probably already gone through some strategic planning exercises that included thinking about their organization's "core competencies". Developing a model validates or alters the competencies so that the "ideal" competencies are in fact the competencies required for superior performance in the organization. It also helps them understand the job competency process and align it to the company's strategy. For example, if innovation is a desired core competency, then a "fostering innovation" competency may be included in most models in order to drive the kind of change needed. An executive model is also needed for a good succession planning system.
This is the way a large manufacturing division launched its effort to improve performance and alter its culture. A model was done for division general managers and then cascaded down to other key positions.
3. Should you do one-size-fits-all models or multiple models for multiple jobs?
Some organizations use a generic model for all management positions (one-size-fits-all model). The model may have been one developed externally to cover all management jobs in all industries. Or it may have been developed internally by surveying senior executives asking them what they thought were the key characteristics required for success in their organization. Both approaches are inexpensive to adopt.
The prime disadvantage is lack of validity in a specific organization. The externally developed model may miss several key competencies that may really make the difference between superior and average performance in your unique culture. The internally developed list is often based on opinion and false assumptions and not on hard data. There can also be a communications gap. One CEO insisted that his organization hire and develop people "with a fire in their belly". He didn't mean finding people with ulcers, but it did take a competency model to validate his opinion and to clearly and concisely describe the qualities of people who were actually successful in that organization.
The opposite end of the spectrum is to do models for every job in an organization (multiple models for multiple jobs), which is costly and unnecessary. Job models are not necessary for every single job in an organization. Jobs can be grouped into like categories or levels. For example, ten different positions in an information systems department may grouped into three levels.
These approaches, plus the single job model approach, are described in detail in an 18-page reprint from Human Resource Management magazine. http://www.workitect.com/articles.php
http://ezinearticles.com/?Planning-A-Competency-Modeling-Project&id=617863

Research and Markets: Loss Models: From Data to Decisions (+ ExamPrep Set), 3rd Edition

DUBLIN--(Business Wire)--
Research and Markets
(http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a668f7/loss_models_from) has
announced the addition of John Wiley and Sons Ltd's new report "Loss Models:
From Data to Decisions (+ ExamPrep Set), 3rd Edition" to their offering.

This set includes the textbook, Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Third
Edition and the ExamPrep for Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Online, 3rd
Edition

ExamPrep (Online) for Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, Third Edition

eKlugman ExamPrep provides an interactive method for working most of the
exercises in Loss Models including, as well as providing, hints and step-by-step
solutions. Many of the questions have a feature that makes random changes so
that the same question can be worked more than once. The questions cover
simulations, log normal distributions, aggregate loss models and operational
risks, among a host of other actuarial topics. eKlugman ExamPrep also includes
multiple forms of simulated exams with questions specially written for exam C/4
practice. The product features a built-in record keeping system in order to
reinforce further practice and promote customization of study skills. This
online product presents useful tips in understanding the test material, and it
aids users in achieving specific exam goals. The material is a 'must have' for
all aspiring and practicing actuaries who desire a fast and efficient
alternative to using the traditional coursebook approach. Price includes 6-month
access/subscription. Once purchased, the product is nonreturnable.

Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, 3rd Edition

Written by three renowned authorities in the actuarial field, Loss Models, Third
Edition upholds the reputation for excellence that has made this book required
reading for the Society of Actuaries (SOA), Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS),
and Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) qualification examinations. This
update serves as a complete presentation of statistical methods for measuring
risk and building models to measure loss in real-world events.

This book maintains an approach to modeling and forecasting that utilizes tools
related to risk theory, loss distributions, and survival models. Random
variables, basic distributional quantities, the recursive method, and techniques
for classifying and creating distributions are also discussed. Both parametric
and non-parametric estimation methods are thoroughly covered along with advice
for choosing an appropriate model.

Features of the Third Edition include:

* Extended discussion of risk management and risk measures, including
Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR)
* New sections on extreme value distributions and their estimation
* Inclusion of homogeneous, nonhomogeneous, and mixed Poisson processes
* Expanded coverage of copula models and their estimation
* Additional treatment of methods for constructing confidence regions when there
is more than one parameter.

The book continues to distinguish itself by providing over 400 exercises that
have appeared on previous SOA, CAS and CIA examinations. Intriguing examples
from the fields of insurance and business are discussed throughout, and all data
sets are available on the book's FTP site, along with programs that assist with
conducting loss model analysis.

Loss Models, Third Edition is an essential resource for students and aspiring
actuaries who are preparing to take the SOA, CAS, and CIA preliminary
examinations. It is also a must-have reference for professional actuaries,
graduate students in the actuarial field, and anyone who works with loss and
risk models in their everyday work.

For more information visit
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/a668f7/loss_models_from



Research and Markets
Laura Wood
Senior Manager
press@researchandmarkets.com
Fax from USA: 646-607-1907
Fax from rest of the world: +353-1-481-1716
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS98091+01-Sep-2009+BW20090901

Copyright Business Wire 2009

How I Started Working With 3D Modeling Programs

So I'll start from the very beginning.

One day I was surfing in the web and I found one site -- www.digitalblasphemy.com and I browsed it. I was inspired by the 3D graphics' realism and suddenly I noticed the "My tools" button. My heart stopped for a moment and after that I entered the section and some time later I already had the tools and started working.

In the beginning I don't know why I thought it would be easy but later on I realised that I was wrong and it seemed impossible to create what the author had already did. But when I created my first render I compared it with some other from that site and I noticed that I had a female figure and he did also, so I am on the right way :) all I have to do now is tweak it a little. And once again with new motivation I started more deeply to study the chosen -- Poser 4 program. As I was learning rapidly the essentials my circle of knowledge grew and I realised that there is so much more that I don't know. The next couple of days I gave myself some time to think about that and I haven't even touched the program. Going further I even realised that I can't limit myself to that particular program and decided to learn some more less hard programs. Oh I forgot to mention that I did not learn everything with try and error, I also read some tutorials with difficulty level -- easy. Now I am reading with moderate and I can't dare thinking for the hard ones.

Well so much for my 3D experience before doing that I usually played games when suddenly I realised that this is a terible waste of time... well I still play them but way too little and I often use their models to practise with 3dsmax; for example all the models in Warcraft 3 are made using 3dsmax so I often open them to change animations and textures. Soon I may even create my own model and import it and create a custom map... maybe. So much for the offtopic.

Well...thats all I can think of. It was nice writing it, hope you enjoyed it.

For people that will redestribute this please keep my resource box untouched.

http://ezinearticles.com/?How-I-Started-Working-With-3D-Modeling-Programs&id=30611

Teen Models and the Internet

Teen Modeling has always been a very popular Industry. Companies like Abercrombie & Fitch, Old Navy, Aeropostle, Billabong, and many others exclusively market the teenage demographic and as such generally hire Teen Models to best portray the image they are seeking. According to recent studies, Teen consumers in the age range from 12 - 17 showed an estimated spending power of 153 Billion and thus present a vast marketing opportunity that is multifaceted and touches on many products and services.

To successfully target teen consumers, many companies are seeking Teen Models to represent their particular brand. In the retail industry, much has been made of teens™ attraction to the youthful image projected by retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch; therefore teens naturally gravitate to this retailer as one œfor someone my own age.

So what options are available to today's Teen's wishing to become a model? The opportunities for Teen Models today are endless. With the advent of Web 2.0 user-generated websites, many Teen Models are finding it much easier to get noticed and present their Online Model Portfolios. The advantage of Online Modeling Portfolios and user-generated Social Networking sites have been refined to market the Online Teen Model directly. Such sites are called Online Model Listing services.

While there are many Online Model Listing services available, it is important for prospective Teen Models to recognize distinct differences in them. Many Online Model Listing services offer free registration and a limited ability to upload an Online Portfolio. This allows the Teen Model to begin a modest online presence but often falls short in regards to a Fully Interactive Online Model Listing service.

The next Online Model Listing service offers a full, interactive Online presence for the Teen Model, enabling the model to present a professional model portfolio with no space limitations. Fully Interactive Online Model Listing services also offer options totally unavailable to the typical free listing service. This includes the ability to communicate directly with prospective clients, agencies, photographers, and companies. Full service listing companies also offer the ability to apply for online jobs, upload completed image or video sets, and receive payments directly through the website.

With the increased convenience of the Internet, many Teen Models are choosing to model directly through a Fully Interactive Model Listing service. This is not only potentially very profitable, but a safe alternative to traveling.

Teen Models today have more choices and opportunities then ever before. If you are a Teen Model wishing to explore this exciting industry it is important to build a professional digital portfolio and select the Online Model Listing service that best suits your needs. Update your images often in order to always represent your latest look and interact as often as possible with your prospective clients. Online Teen Modeling is a lucrative and exciting field and will only increase in popularity. If you are wishing to become a Teen Model the time has never been better to begin.

http://ezinearticles.com/?Teen-Models-and-the-Internet&id=2184371